Why India Looks Agitated?

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If the United States’ foreign policy in Afghanistan would have been a success and they would have, after impairing the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan that ruled between 1996 and 2001, been able to instate a strongman who would do as their liking, and had packed their bags and left, there wouldn’t have been a prolonged anti-US slogan and Taliban would not have had a come-back and become so undyingly pervading – and India would not have come to such a point of agitation.

US miscalculation in Syria, especially in thinking that after their favors to Iran in both Afghanistan and Iraq, where they removed regimes unfriendly to them, giving them considerable access to the throne of Kabul, and giving the same Baghdad with which they had made a 10 year long bloody war, in a silver platter – that after all these favors Iran would stand aside and let them overthrow Assad in Syria. With Assad down Iran would be left with just a vulnerable Baghdad, but with Assad standing they can think of a renewed power-belt all the way from Tehran to Beirut. Nor would Russia want the diminishing of this strong buffer, whilst already facing the heat of ICBMs at its borders with East Europe and Poland and enemies as close as in Ukraine. And the same oil, US and its allies crave for in Iraq had long been received at lesser rates by Iran, Russia and China when Saddam was under sanctions, then how would the US be allowed to have the same oil slip away to its tankers now, free of charge.

This miscalculation had its effect in Afghanistan, the length of the Syria adventure gave Russia the confidence to intervene militarily and once it guesstimated possible success in Syria, it decided to go as far as confronting India, a major US ally, by framing strategic alliance with Pakistan, who is already making US/India success in Afghanistan impossible.

Again China, who is already dreaded with an impending economic crisis that comes with the global slowdown of imports and exports, was provoked by increased US naval activity in the South China Sea region. Obama’s Asia Pivot Policy if it succeeded intended to bring all of China’s traditional trade partners in its neighborhood, away from China and in America’s pocket. In that case not only would Chinese companies incur heavy loses and the sea-lanes would become more expensive for Chinese ships but increased US presence in all allied ports in the Pacific would make it impossible for China to defeat the US in case of any military encounter. Thus China not only actively revamped its diplomacy in its neighborhood but also stood up against Indian interests in defiance of the US.

China’s reassurances to Pakistan in the global stage were meant to pass a message to US and its ally India that the road to Afghanistan is not without tariff. China’s open support for Pakistan was shown in several recent occasions, like in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tashkent, when China assured Pakistan that it will back its membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group; when the Counsel General visited Pakistan and said ‘In case of any [foreign]aggression our country will extend its full support to Pakistan’, and when China blocked a tributary of the Brahmaputra River for one of its hydro projects, just when the Modi administration was debating on re-writing the Indus Water Treaty. China’s commitment to complete the CPEC, which will become the silk road of modern times, is also a signal of change in global commerce in near future, which can potentially pale Indian & US plans of regional hegemony.

China’s anti-India stance is not without historic baggage. India’s support for the Dalai Lama and Tibetan Independence Movement, with headquarters in India, has been decades-long scorn in Sino-Indian relations. Tibet’s independence would also remove China’s claim on Arunachal Pradesh, which was traditionally Tibetan land. The Naxal/Maoist Insurgency that engulfs one-third of India, backed by China, has been China’s answer to India’s Tibet policy. On the other end of the Himalayas, China controls Aksai Chin and Ladakh, which are traditionally part of Kashmir, and India claims them. More so India’s unfruitful dream to try to regain the independent side of Kashmir affiliated with Pakistan would mean cutting off the China-Pakistan access route, the end of the CPEC and alienation of Pakistan from a trusted friend.

India cannot be allowed to freely connive in the region, when it collaborates with the US, a threat for both Pakistan and China. India’s new strategic agreements with US are seen by China as an anti-China advance. US access to Indian ports and bases would mean US closeness to Pakistani and Chinese borders and increased presence over the sea-lanes from where China wants to oust the US now. China has recently negotiated a Sino-Myanmar transport corridor, oil & gas pipelines and a deep water port construction project in Kyaukpyu, Myanmar. China is also going for a trans-Bangladesh railway project, thus consolidating friends from India’s neighborhood. Whereas on the contrary, India’s much famed Chabahar port project in Iran has to remain unripe until there is something to come out of Afghanistan. Even if that happens, Iran will give second thoughts to benefiting an ally of its pronounced enemy.

It’s not that China had been totally oblivious to the invasion of Afghanistan, after all China Metallurgical Group (MCC) was offered the rights to mine copper in Aynak, with an estimated $88billion worth copper, in the very beginning. But in time perhaps China has realized that taking out the copper from beneath the soil that the Taliban walk will not be a dream come true soon, and unlike India, China has never shown tendency to participate militarily in the loot in Afghanistan – that too at the expense of losing friends like Pakistan.

So the case of India’s agitation over Pakistan is interesting. The agitation however is not solely provoked by Pakistan’s actions. Rather India’s being a ‘Major Defense Partner of the United States’ as announced in the 2016 US State Department memorandum , is a more viable source. A Logistics Support Agreement between US & India is ready for signing which will allow US to use India’s land, air and naval bases for resupplies, repair and rest. India is also a part of Obama’s Asia Pivot, but a little separate from the pivot in the Pacific, where Obama seems to have lost a long time partner in Philippines already. But India was a pivot for its own fruits; its inexpensive young and innumerable workforce that could be used to reduce the effects of the Chinese workforce in extended future, its educated class which again gives the cheapest rates to western outsourcing companies – and India being a last possible hope for US success in Afghanistan.

Because foolishly enough India was the only one prepared to enter Afghanistan with its army contingents and join with CIA’s covert warfare to destabilize Pakistan along with Afghanistan by funding and abetting mercenary gangs capable of disrupting peace. So while NATO members were decreasing presence, virtually leaving the US alone in Afghanistan, India was increasing its forces, partaking in the training of the Afghan Army, increasing its consulate facilities along Pak/Afgan border and increasing the volume of its love-Afghan rhetoric.

All this was happening to India in the same decade when India had switched over from a strictly internalized socialist economy to a capitalist one in 1991 under Narasimha Rao’s initiative. A sudden opening to the free-market and access to loans and Foreign Direct Investment brought an unprecedented boom to India’s GDP, with an IMF forecasted 7.5% growth throughout 2015. But to the misfortune of the populace, the capitalist model has only helped in making more billionaires in India, while the poor remain poorer. India’s top 1% holds close to half of the country’s total wealth, while the world’s poorest 10% are Indians. Inequality brings problems and for an India with a 1.25billion population, the problems become staggering; like health, food and energy security, water shortage, pollution etc. But most of all inequality brings anger, that makes for unrest and insurgencies that are rife in India. But the problem for the elite capitalist class of India is neither inequality nor do they deem any consideration to popular dissatisfaction – what they are worried about is, in imitating the US Exceptionalist Model, is how to maintain the growth figures in a crumbling global economy with a lessening appetite for Indian exports and services.

Exceptionalism is a mind-disease, it is an after-effect of the capitalist model, it consolidates resources and authority and endangers the survival of the majority class – and it cannot restrain itself in its own state borders. Hindu class-society was a perfect petri dish for capitalism and BJP is the match-culture – and its Hindutva extremism takes Exceptionalism as its crown. So, of all of Asia’s 48 states, only India has the vein to join US imperialistic designs, when even the likely Pacific states seem to have back-footed on Obama’s offers.

So what can India do for the US, apart from blowing the bellows of war on Pakistan? Will they conquer Afghanistan for them, an Afghanistan that sits on a $1 trillion trove of mineral wealth, all waiting to be thrown in together with India’s cheap labor, to create more billionaires in India, US and their select friends? They have tried to, by setting ISIS against the Taliban, in recent days, but does ISIS stand a chance against the Taliban, when even Al Qaeda did not operate against them; they had only used Afghanistan as a springboard to regenerate terrorists around the world. Will they do that by training the Afghan forces against their own brethren – such an unnatural notion is far from seeing success, time has proven that it only succeeds in causing blowbacks like the ‘greens on blue attacks’. They haven’t succeeded in destabilizing Pakistan with their 10 year campaign in covertly setting assets like Kulbhushan Yadav to create anti-Pakistan terror outfits that have viciously killed tens of thousands in the country – all these factors add only to India’s agitation.

Or can India do the least, of maintaining enough noise, on international platforms and in UN corridors, constantly portraying Pakistan as a terror-exporting state – so that when/if US decides to attack Pakistan, the case of lies is ripe, as was for the invasion of Iraq, against Saddam’s WMDs. But this when/if does not have a high probability, whereas the price for anti-Pakistan rhetoric can be high for India.

As Pakistan feels surrounded by Indian presence all along its borders to the east, in Occupied Kashmir, in Afghanistan and India’s growing ties with Iran on the Chabahar Project and above all that India’s vocal provocations from its top levels, has made it exigent upon Pakistan to stand its feet in Afghanistan by supporting the Taliban and inflate its support to freedom-groups striving in Occupied Kashmir, both of which it deems are fighting legit wars for self-determination.  So the price India has to pay is heat in Occupied Kashmir and gloom of broken dreams in Afghanistan – thus the increased agitation!

So what’s the probability of a US unilateral attack on Pakistan? Does Pakistan depend upon China or Russia to come down to help, who had previously pursued a wait and watch policy in the case of Afghanistan and Iraq and even to an extent in Syria? Or do we trust that our dear friend Saudi Arabia will be able to put any pressure on the isolationist US with regard to us? One should bethink that given their own entanglement in the greater global scenario, they would be compelled to further their help and in effective time too – provided they think of Pakistan as an indispensible partner.

Factors that make us indispensible can be several. With Afghanistan compromised we become the next first in the line of attack between US interests and Russia/China interests – if we are eliminated as a buffer – that would add only to the vulnerability of Russia and China and so of Iran. Our defeat also means the end of warm water ports for China. It also means further isolation for an already isolated Saudi Arabia in the Middle East. But our nuclear arsenal, which can potentially ignite an all-out nuclear world war, does not allow us to be defeated. Because once the heat is on, the time would be right for China to settle its scores in the South China Sea and Russia would not relent in clearing the growing nuisance in East Europe and Poland and might be that the Bolivarian of Latin America feels a comeback wave too and soon everyone would fit in a global chessboard.

This is completely not acceptable, especially if it is eminent that the Superpower and its allies in Europe are soon to collapse under the weight of their own economic crises. If time is all it will take for this collapse, Russia and China would opt for elongating the events, while US would opt for ‘do or die’. This time-constraint is another vital factor that agitates those who think time matters so much for them. Perhaps India is on one of those ships whose time is not never-ending.

But the thought of an all-out nuclear war is gory, its viciousness would kill humanity in the billions – no sane element of humanity is expected to come to this low – not even America or India – because they too are human! But short of that there will be not much more for India to do than blowing the bellows!

Comments

comments

is a writer at PKKH.tv and can be contacted at aneela.pathfinder@gmail.com, she tweets @AneelaShahzad

Discussion10 Comments

  1. Aneela, In this game of Real politic where Nationalism and Religion combine gets involved overlooking the real issues that effect the daily lives of the ordinary people.
    What you have written is called Jingoism and unfortunately this type of hysteria does not last long.
    I can detect wishful thinking in this article.
    Actually what you are saying is that only the region around South Asian subcontinent matters.
    China never takes knee jerk decisions therefore the blocking of Brahmputra Tributary is a decision showing very desperate times. Just like Eastern Turkmenistan China has a big problem going southwards via the POK Kashmir and Baluchistan region they will have to fill it with Huns and will take decades to do so. The resident populations of this region are not educated enough to break with the traditions to adopt materialism and pseudo capitalism that China propagates. Pakistan will be a total loser in this game of encroachment nationalism.
    India’s economy is growing and as a matter of fact if allowed to grow peacefully will overtake China within the next 25 years. However if the China India combine became united with a peaceful accord the growth for both countries will reach great heights and this was once the case some time ago when Nalanda University was the central focal point of universal learning.
    All I will say for now is that Nalanda era is definitely on the anvil. After going through a lot of trying moments the populations as they grow and educated by the Internet breaking the cultural divisions the awareness will dawn and Nationalism and religions will be eliminated creating a massive FTA with minimal governance of the people. The internet and the IT will become the new avenue of governance.
    Just like the renewable clean energies will take over the generation of electricity which will be a hundred times cheaper and economic and decentralised compared to today. I will not say anything more for now as quite rightly we are still living in the pre- pre historic times even long before the stone ages in terms of human evolution. The entire arsenal of the Earth’s Nuclear bombs of the current stone age have to be eliminated first.
    Regards and God bless
    Viren Naik

    • Viren, if your ‘still living in the pre- pre historic times even long before the stone ages in terms of human evolution’ how do you expect India overtaking China in 25yrs – dont mix fiction with reality.

      and if by letting India grow peacefully you mean letting it killing and exploit peacefully in Kashmir and Afghanistan, that will not be allowed

      • Great comment my friend as I have said nationalism and religions will be eliminated that means there will be no India no China and no Pakistan and therefore Kashmir of Afghanistan will be just the names in history. We live in present times only therefore it is difficult to understand stand collectively what the future should look like.Just look at human history a hundred years ago there was no Kashmir or Afghan conflict only imperialists ruling these lands.
        Up until now China was not involved only India and Pakistan. China stands to lose billions and a considerably longer by period of intensive fighting against the western and Indian interests. I am afraid the conflict of the Middle East is destined to move Eastwards all the three countries India Pakistan and China are inadvertently facilitating this impending future. Nationalistic conflicts are always encroachment based which has nothing to do with mainly peace loving ordinary populations.
        Keep replying to my comments and we all will stumble upon the real solutions.
        I hope you will understand why I am saying that we live in prehistoric times.
        Just wait and see how situations will develop after the election of the new President in USA.
        Regards and God bless
        Viren Naik

        • What can i say friend, have no answer to your wishful thinking of an era of erased memories.

          But i do worry that your prehistoric fantasy shows your belief in fatalism, which asks its believers to remain disassociated with the present.

          If China wasn’t involved, who has backed the Naxals for decades?

          • I know what you are getting at and to be honest about this proves the point that national boundary lines do not mean anything at all other than the fact that they bring miseries to millions of people globally for the wrong decision making at the central government levels who really do not give an iota of importance to the local cultures etc.
            Despite the religion I can confidently say that the mass cross migration between the two communities in Punjab would have never occurred if the local populations were directed to deal with the separation as both sides understood the culture and the language.
            Neither India nor Pakistan were one countries at the time of the partition. Both were created because the occupier was at the middle of leaving and created intentional misunderstandings between the few chosen negotiators who never understood the ethos of an independent nationhood.
            In my words the citizens of both the countries were just about being released from the slavery mind set. How can they suddenly understand what nationalism is.
            India and Pakistan were both rules by religious and caste oriented village cabalism where only the Priests or Imams even today have a greater say.
            They hold a sham democracy card every 5 years giving the controlling powers a free hand in ruling a nation because these populations have never understood what their rights are under a true free democratic society.
            We all know India is ruled by Central Government Imperialism and the nexus of Civil Servants, Politicians and Industrialist control the resources and in Pakistan It is the same with Army calling the shots.
            The Panama papers have now been released and hopefully they are going to bring about the long awaited change in breaking these Mafias. There is no other word than to describe the ruling elite in both the countries as ‘Mafias’ be it religious ,army or politicians they are all in the same league as far as I am concerned.
            Anyway again in terms of civilisation development I will call this period as pre historic because when the real revolution sets in a completely different society will emerge if you count China on the same par as South Asia
            The change is coming mark my words.
            Regards and God bless
            Viren Naik

  2. not to worry china and pakistan certanly destroyed..dont put too much strain in yr brain ..let the thing take place

  3. russia would not like to burn her hand in triuble water ..pakistan has to pay price for bringing china to india and US door …45 billion might bring graveyads of milion inocent ppl of pakistan ..pakistan has some time to rectify her policy soon otherwise thing might go out of control

  4. Great Analysis!

    I wish our political leaders could have the depth to understand the strategic importance of defending Pakistan’s interests and not succumb to USA/Indian pressure.

  5. Ok my friends so far whatever I have written to you has now started to come within the present vision.
    Firstly I take no credit for whatever I have written before as a matter of fact it really hurts and you don’t even know how many times I have cried into sleep for being trapped with the punishment of knowing what is coming in the future.
    All I can say is that Mount Kailash in Tibet holds the key to the entire survival of the Eco system of the planet earth.
    After the last Asteroid it has taken the Mother Nature 64 million years to build the Eco System as we know today. I will only tell you this that for the last 12000 years after the mini Ice Age Mount Kailash was the only factor that brought us back to normality.
    We are now threatened again by humanity itself to bring upon the destruction of the ecosystem by creating military linked explosions around this very vital but delicate area.
    The Chinese have been exploding bombs in Tibet regularly since 1985 era and you can already see the monsoon effect on India, Pakistan and China and not to forget the Andes link creating havoc in the Americas.
    I will leave it to your imagination what is coming next in this saga.
    Regards and God Bless
    Viren naik

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