Reports are emerging that the US is seriously considering kicking out the Karzai government by the use of the ANA so that the pact can be signed at the earliest, whereas the next elections will be held by the ANA on the already announced schedule.
2014 will be the most crucial year of the more-than-a-decade-long ongoing war in Afghanistan. The US Army and the ISAF are trying hard to stick with President Obama’s announced exit plan of December 2014, although the mammoth task of leaving Afghanistan is far away from completion.
At this stage, the US needs the cooperation and support of the Afghan President Hamid Karzai at the fullest, but the gulf between Kabul and Washington is drastically increased, as it is now more than eight months since Karzai has spoken to his US counterpart due to the crisis over the controversial US-Afghanistan military pact. Although the US considers waiting on the Afghan security deal until Karzai leaves, there are unconfirmed reports that the US is seriously considering the removal of Karzai through an Afghan National Army (ANA) takeover.
The US–Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement is an agreement between Afghanistan and the United States of America that provides a long-term framework for the relationship between them after the drawdown of the US forces from the Afghanistan war. American-led combat operations in Afghanistan are set to end on Dec 31, but the US is seeking to keep up to 10,000 troops on the ground under the heads of counterterrorism and training missions. But the Afghan President Hamid Karzai is refusing to sign a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) governing future troop presence.
The Obama administration has quietly stopped demanding that Afghan President Hamid Karzai finalize a stalled security pact within weeks, opening up the possibility that a decision on keeping the US and international forces in Afghanistan after this year might not be made until after Karzai’s successor is elected this spring. State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf also avoided putting a specific timetable on finalizing the agreement, saying Thursday that the US position was simply that “it needs to be signed soon.”
Though Hamid Karzai was elected by democratic process, everyone in Afghanistan is well aware that the US selected him for Afghanistan’s presidency; and as his 2nd term of presidentship is going to end in April 2014, according to sources, he is willing to get the 3rd term from the US or to earn maximum benefits for himself by every possible means. In the upcoming elections, there are 11 presidential candidates, and due to cultural/ethnic diversification it is easy to predict that any single candidate will not be able to get 50% of the total votes cast, which means that the next President of Afghanistan will not be able to chair before September 2014.
The Afghan military establishment is fully in favor of a security pact, from top officials to foot soldiers; despite being officially made to keep silent on the topic, many officials publicly gave their comments to media outlets. Reports are emerging that the US is seriously considering kicking out the Karzai government by the use of the ANA so that the pact can be signed at the earliest, whereas the next elections will be held by the ANA on the already announced schedule.
Karzai is also increasingly searching for friends of Afghanistan other than the US, the recent Indian External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid’s visit of Afghanistan on occasion of the inauguration of Afghanistan’s first agricultural university was one example. Khurshid assures India’s extended full support for a reconciliation process involving the people of the war-torn country and assistance to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), which will play an important role in “this year of political and security transition”. It is notable that the Indian Army’s increasingly suspicious activities and movements are being monitored by Pakistan all over Afghanistan, specially in Jalalabad and Qandahar, apart from the dozens of Indian consulates operating near the Af-Pak borders.
Elimination of the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan by the US was started by the bombardment of Daisy Cutters, and the US only spent $648bn during the war against terrorism in Afghanistan to formulate a stable, democratic and prosperous Afghanistan. At this point, the US is ready to launch Democracy Cutter against the infant democracy of Afghanistan through the Afghan National Army to achieve its short term goals. There is no guarantee that the derailment of the ongoing half-baked democratic process will be able to ensure the next presidential election. It was the US who led the war in the name of democracy, and now it is the US’ responsibility to ensure democracy in Afghanistan; as the continuation of the democratic process is the only solution to Afghanistan’s short term and long term problems.