Published On: Mon, Jul 8th, 2013

Post 2014 Afghanistan -A Phantasm

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Post NATO

The NATO forces impending withdrawal from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, is being extensively debated on various forums. An attempt has been made to analyse its repercussions, with an added emphasis on the complications that might arise for Afghans in the post withdrawal scenario.

Firstly, Afghanistan is suffering from rampant violence, as a result of sectarian and ethnic strife, which is gradually increasing as the time line of NATO forces withdrawal is ending.  This would rapidly exacerbate, if no international peacekeeping force stays in the conflict ridden areas, and will hamper all the gains achieved up till now.

These complications have been observed recently, in the province Uruzgan. The example of militant commander Haji Hakim Shujaee, an ethnic Hazara who is accused of ravaging many schools, raping women and killing locals (Pashtuns) due to ethnic differences, is of particular importance in this regard. Moreover, the observers of Afghan insurgencies have also laid emphasis countless times that indigenous militias and war lords are looking forward to fill in the security void, in the wake of 2014.

Secondly, the withdrawal of international forces from conflict ridden areas is subject to the availability of efficient replacement for the administration of security matters.  Unfortunately, the Afghanistan army is not capable enough to protect Afghanistan at this stage. The rising defections trend in Afghanistan army speaks for itself. These soldiers eventually regroup with Taliban, and attack on foreign forces.

The reasons for increasing defections are due to professional incompetence of Afghanistan National Army, corruption within army ranks, inferior quality of arms and ammunitions et cetera. There are chances that ANA future operations will completely halt, due to absence of operational support from foreign forces.

Thirdly, the women rights issue will rekindle once again. Women in Afghanistan have suffered tremendously since the last three decades. Since the invasion of Afghanistan, these incidents have diminished due to law and order apparatus, but still there emerge cases of domestic abuse.

A former woman law maker Ms Atmar was divorced by her husband and shunned by family, after she helped pass the landmark legislation for the protection of women.

Recommendations

The Afghan governance dilemma can only be resolved by means of an Intra Afghan dialogue, which has already been initiated, and it should be continued with vehemence, until it is successful. Not only it would prove fruitful for the peace and prosperity of Afghanistan, but also terror afflicted Pakistan. No country should be allowed to promote their nefarious designs from Afghan soil thence forth. Until this happens, NATO should remain on Afghan soil.

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